10:29am UK, Thursday March 20, 2003

From the outset of the current crisis over Iraq, the talk among senior politicians on both sides of the Atlantic has been of a regime change in Baghdad.

Some take the view that by getting rid of Saddam Hussein, President Bush is taking care of business his father left unfinished after the Gulf War of 1991.

180-iraq opposition

Opposition leaders in London

Only a few years earlier, the US had seen Iraq as worth wooing. Baghdad's neighbour Iran had thrown out the US-backed Shah. Radical Islam and anti-American feelings were running high.

The Reagan administrationsent a private citizen, Donald Rumsfeld, as a special envoy to improve relations with Saddam. Today, Mr Rumsfeld is the US Defence Secretary.

Influence

Later, when Iraq used chemical weapons on rebellious Kurds in the north of the country, Washington was forced to change its mind. The invasion of Kuwait confirmed Saddam as the bogey man of the Middle East.

But what happens if and when he goes? 

Some suggest a military government could emerge with yet another strongman at the helm. 

Even that scenario would be preferable to the Americans, and in any case there would likely be a peacekeeping force involving American troops. 

At the moment, Iraqi opposition groups are jockeying for influence in any new administration.

Consequences

At the end of last year, opposition leaders met in a London hotel to discuss the consequences of a war and prepare for the immediate aftermath of Saddam Hussein.

Any hopes for a smooth agreement were tempered by the fact that it took weeks of skilful negotiation to get all the parties together in the first place.

The representatives of some 50 ethnic, political and religious groups have been characterised by their opposition to each other as much as to Saddam.

But at the end of four days of meetings they agreed on the creation of a 65-member committee to follow up their proposals for a federal democracy should the dictator be ousted.

Powerful

The committee, which was enlarged by 15 members overnight, is designed to represent as many of the political, religious and ethnic groups inside Iraq as possible.

Members include powerful figures such as Ahmed Chalabi, the head of the Iraqi National Congress, Iyad Alawi, leader of the Iraqi National Accord.

Another figure is Sayid Abdelaziz Al-Hakim, whose brother Ayatollah Al-Hakim heads the Iran-based Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq.

But there were disagreements. Some of the smaller groups and independents complained that the larger, more powerful delegates on the committee, which is likely to form the basis for any future government in Iraq, had tried to dominate proceedings.

The Islamic Group of Iraqi Kurdistan alleged that the larger parties were "on honeymoon" with the United States. It claimed Washington had influenced the exact make-up of the committee.

Elections

The claim was rejected outright, with Jalal Talabani of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan stating that no one had sought to monopolise positions on the committee.

Among the proposals in the political statement officially released by the opposition groups is the provision for elections within two years of setting up an initial coalition authority at the end of Saddam's regime.

General principles are for the people to be the source of authority and the base of legitimacy; the independence of Iraq; and the separation of legislative, executive and judicial powers.

There is also provision for the respect of human rights and the opportunity for Iraq to play an "active role" in the international community, abiding by its charters and conventions.