Global Threat Of War

Updated:08:31, Wednesday November 13, 2002

A war against Iraq could escalate into a nuclear conflict that would kill up to 4m people, an alarming report claims.

Even without nuclear weapons, as many as 500,000 people could die, global health organisation Medact predicts.

Oil fires: economic crisis

Civil war, famine and epidemics could occur, oil fields attacked, and the entire region could be engulfed by conflict, according to the Doomsday scenario.

Economic collapse in Iraq could ensue and soaring oil prices could trigger a world economic crisis.

Consequence

"The need to ensure that Iraq is disarmed of its weapons does not warrant a war," said Gill Reeve, the assistant director of the group of doctors, nurses and health experts.

Medact's report, Collateral Damage, considers how the substantial use of chemical and biological weapons (CBW) might trigger a nuclear response.

"An Iraqi CBW attack on Israel or elsewhere could provoke immediate nuclear retaliation from Israel, the US and/or UK while the UK and US have not ruled out the nuclear first-strike option," it noted.

Oil wells

"We're making a last ditch effort to make people see reason, to think about the consequences," Mr Reeve said.

The report examines the impact of war from a public health perspective, and argues that other options are available.

The group warns that any conflict against Iraqi President Saddam Hussein would cost more than £126bn and leave Iraq in ruins.

The report warns that Saddam could retaliate to an attack on Iraq by setting fire to oil wells, releasing chemical, radiological or biological weapons.

Destruction

"There would be widespread damage to the environment of Iraq and possibly neighbouring countries. Oil wells would be fired, creating spills and toxic smoke," Mr Reeve said.

"Troop movements and land mines will destroy the fragile desert economy."

Refugees escaping the conflict could die in large numbers and put a strain on neighbouring countries and emergency relief is likely to cost billions, he added.

Medact, the British affiliate of International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War, won the 1985 Nobel Peace Prize.